Research preview · rolling form

PULSE — recent form, and why you should not forecast with it

PULSE is descriptive, not predictive. We tested exactly the misuse a form metric invites — using games through August to anticipate September — and short windows performed worse than assuming every hitter is league average. Read these numbers as a record of what happened, never as an expectation of what comes next.

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The forward test — every arm, worst to best

EstimatorForward MAEBeats league average?
Unavailable.

Hitter form — trailing 50 and 100 PA, beside the season anchor

All values are runs per plate appearance. Window figures carry ±1 standard error; a wide interval means the window cannot distinguish this player from average.
PlayerSeason
runs/PA		Last 50 PA
runs/PA ±SE		 Last 100 PA
runs/PA ±SE		Through
Unavailable.