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Hardball Signal
Research preview · five-season corpus · 2021–2025

How scoring moved, 2021 to 2025

Five completed seasons, every game reconciled against the official game logs. Runs per game is the one question this corpus can answer straight across all five — it is counted, not modelled, and it needs no fitted metric to be comparable.

Player ratings exist for 2025 only. The earlier seasons are here as reconciled event corpora, not as rated seasons, and no CORE, CROWN or PULSE figure is comparable across them.

Runs per game, by season

From the reconciled totals — the same counts the conservation gate matched to the official game logs, so this line is arithmetic on published evidence rather than a model output.

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The span, and its seams

Each point is a reconciled season. A marker beneath one is a declared rule-regime break falling in it.

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What each break invalidates

A series crossing one of these without a flag is treated as invalid rather than interesting. The contract is versioned; this is what it currently declares.

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Three different boundaries, kept apart

A comparison across seasons can fail three different ways, and they are not the same failure. Each boundary below is a separate fact with its own remedy.

Baseball changed its rules

The pitch clock, the bigger bases, the shift limits, the extra-innings runner — declared rule-regime breaks. Numbers straddling one describe different games. The era contract names each break and what it invalidates.

The analysis covers one season

CORE, CROWN, PULSE and SIGNAL are fitted on 2025 only — an analytical-generation boundary, not a baseball one. Earlier seasons are reconciled corpora with no player ratings, so no rating here can be compared across seasons even where the rules match.

The source covers a window

This corpus holds 2021–2025 as admitted captures with receipts and hashes, plus the 2025 postseason on its own clock. Seasons outside that window are not sparse — they are absent, and adding one means a new admitted capture, not a backfill. See data & sources.

Keep going

Eras

The full era contract

Every declared break, including those outside this corpus, and the consequence each one carries.

Open eras →

Validation

How reconciliation is proved

Conservation is necessary and not sufficient, and the validation route says exactly what it does and does not establish.

Open validation →

Games

Walk the corpus

Every reconciled 2025 game, event by event, with its win-probability path.

Open games →

Inspect the machinery

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Seasons

SeasonGamesEventsCleanScore mismatches Line-score mismatchesReconciled
Unavailable.