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Hardball Signal
Research preview · 2025 completed season

Recent form, through the end of 2025

Each player's last 50 and 100 plate appearances, or last 5 and 10 appearances for a pitcher, set beside that same player's own full-season line — so a hot or cold stretch is always read against the player it belongs to, never against the league.

Descriptive, not predictive. We tested exactly the misuse a form metric invites, and these short windows had higher error than simply assuming league average. Read them as a record of what happened, never as an expectation of what comes next — the forward test is below.

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Hitter form — trailing 50 and 100 PA, beside the season anchor

All values are runs per plate appearance. Window figures carry ±1 standard error; a wide interval means the window cannot distinguish this player from average.
PlayerSeason
runs/PA
Last 50 PA
runs/PA ±SE
Last 100 PA
runs/PA ±SE
Through
Unavailable.

Pitcher form — starter-majority appearance streams

Each value first averages offensive run value per PA inside an appearance, then gives every appearance equal weight. Lower is better for the pitcher. Windows include both starts and relief outings and disclose the exact mix.
PitcherSeason
appearance-weighted offensive RV/PA
Short window Long windowThrough
Unavailable.

Pitcher form — reliever-majority appearance streams

Each value first averages offensive run value per PA inside an appearance, then gives every appearance equal weight. Lower is better for the pitcher. Windows include both starts and relief outings and disclose the exact mix.
PitcherSeason
appearance-weighted offensive RV/PA
Short window Long windowThrough
Unavailable.

Do short windows predict anything? The forward test

EstimatorForward MAEDifference vs league Evidence
Unavailable.