Research preview · 2025 completed season · open tools
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The open foundations, exposed directly: the 24-state run-expectancy matrix, the empirical linear weights derived from it, park factors with their leakage rule attached, and the win-probability calibration. Everything here is computed from the admitted Retrosheet capture and hash-bound to a model release.
Run expectancy — the 24 base-out states
| Bases | 0 out | 1 out | 2 out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unavailable. | |||
Empirical linear weights — run value by event kind
Each kind belongs to exactly one responsibility ledger, which is what stops a run of value from being counted twice.
| Event | Mean run value | ±SE | Events | Ledger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unavailable. | ||||
Park factors — and the rule that governs their use
| Team | Factor (100 = neutral) | Home R/G | Road R/G |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unavailable. | |||